A decisive year

First appeared on Global Europe

By Fabrizio Tassinari

As the EU foreign policy adage goes, it all still depends on how the expectations that many observers had raised on the new EU foreign policy architecture will match with the actual capabilities at Catherine Ahston’s disposal.

The new High Representative will be endowed of significantly enhanced institutional tools, such as a large bureaucracy and a seat in the European Commission. But this does not mean that the EU will automatically acquire a single voice on foreign policy. Despite some additional procedural innovations provided by the Lisbon treaty, national voices, especially from larger member states, will remain far louder—and and their actions weightier—than those of the EU. On relatively less sensible issues, Lady Ashton will probably have better chances to hammer her points on behalf of the EU. But in the most important foreign policy dossiers—whether Russia or the Middle East—the ball is bound to remain in the courts of the Member States. The extent to which the High Representative will appreciate these limitations will also determine her ability to shape a role for her office.

The European External Action Service (EEAS) will provide a more visible face on the ground. Ironically, one may go as far as arguing that if the EU will indeed have the proverbial, single telephone number, it will be also to the extent that selected partners will perceive the enhanced EU delegations in their countries as responsive, useful and visible to answer basic questions about the EU and its policies. On this particular point, the year 2010 will be key. The actual composition and functioning of the EEAS will say much about the EU’s presence in the world and Lady Ashton’s leadership potential.

One last point: Would have a charismatic , “traffic-stopping” politician been a better choice for the EU foreign policy chief representative? Do personalities matter? Yes and no. On the visibility side, the EU could have used a recognizable face to put in front of both successes and failures. But one needs to be realistic in that the job of the High Representative will be about coordinating national foreign policies positions as much as (if not more than) representing a common foreign policy. For this, the EU will need a consensus-builder rather than a crowd-puller and Lady Ashton’s performance will be also judged on that basis.