Dell'allargamento/1

Venerdì scorso ho moderato un dibattito qui a Washington sull'allargamento dell'Ue. Relatore principale, il Direttore Generale della Commissione Europea Michael Leigh.

Si sarebbe potuto parlare di Turchia e PKK, di Serbia e Kosovo, delle dimissioni del premier bosniaco, che ha lasciato perchè la comunità internazionale lo fa sentire un po' Bart Simpson.

E tutto sommato se ne è anche parlato, ma la presenza di telecamere e taccuini all'incontro ha inevitabilmente irrigidito il dibattito.

A me in particolare stava a cuore sollevare la questione turca, che di settimana in settimana sembra essere in un vicolo sempre più cieco. Per questo ho preso carta e pc e ne ho scritto in un corsivo per EU Observer stamattina.

[Comment] Laying low on Turkey

05.11.2007 - 09:22 CET By Fabrizio Tassinari

EUOBSERVER / COMMENT - If further evidence were needed, the second progress report on Turkey's bid for European Union membership, to be released on 6 November by the European Commission, will confirm that Ankara is up for a bumpy and long ride.

Brussels' harsh remarks on Turkey's record of political reforms over the last year are admittedly warranted. And given the dramatic events that have taken place in the past months - the assassination of the Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink, the Army's 'e-coup' in April and the deterioration of the security situation in the Kurdish Southeast -such criticisms are hardly surprising.

What continues to be baffling is the EU's constant emphasis on the historic, unprecedented and unique character of its enlargement towards Turkey.

That Turkey constitutes a very special case in the EU enlargement history should be apparent even to the casual observer of international affairs. And so is Turkey's crucial importance for the prospects of democracy in the Arab-Muslim world, for EU's fledgling foreign policy and even for the fortunes of the Union as a political and economic entity.

European uneasiness with multiculturalism
Paradoxically, however, these are the very same items used by Ankara's many detractors to explain why Turkey's accession would spell the end of the EU.

The country's religious background, its volatile geopolitical environment, its vast size and rising population all make a perfect match with Europe's longstanding introspection and growing uneasiness with multiculturalism. And, in recent years, they have all played extremely well in the hands of Turkey-bashers in Europe.

To dispel these concerns, it would in principle suffice to recall the stipulations that Turkey and the EU agreed upon initiating accession negotiations in 2005.These state that 'negotiations are an open-ended process, the outcome of which cannot be guaranteed beforehand' and that 'long transitional periods, derogations, specific arrangements or permanent safeguard clauses' may have to be considered.

In plain English, this means that even if Turkey becomes a EU member, it may be prevented from ever integrating in the Union in certain sensitive sectors such as movement of people. If circumstances allowed a more serene and rational discussion on the matter, this would probably put to rest the rumours about 'privileged partnership' as a substitute to full membership, to which French President Nicolas Sarkozy has given a new lease of life.

But in the overheated political environment that characterises the debate on Turkey today, it is plainly not enough.

Advised to lay low
That is why, for the time being, supporters of Ankara's EU application would be well advised to lay low.Pro-EU leaders in Turkey and pro-Turkey leaders in Europe would be much better off if they avoided trumpeting the strategic and normative importance of Turkey's accession and focused on the substance of the Commission's work.

Even better, they would do Europe a huge favour if they dropped controversial references to the past, sidelined their inspired visions for the far future, and stuck to the serious challenges they face today.

This is not a tactical expedient: it is key to keep a minimum of credibility. The EU opened accession negotiations to make Turkey a member of the EU family, not an important friend (which it has already been for more than four decades).

Obsessive reminders about Turkey's make-or-break significance for Europe only testify to the EU's insecurity about the enlargement process and about itself. And in the end of the day, the European Commission evaluates a country's progress not its feasibility.

As the report confirms, the jury is going to be out on Ankara's progress for a fairly long time.But the verdict on Turkey's feasibility as a potential member state of the EU has been already reached.